Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.48 – 35.32

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±11.7

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 33.78Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 146.36Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 32.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±12.8

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -3.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 67.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX -28.46Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5902, 6328, 10393

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 6328, 10393

Auto

30.8 15%

Teleop

123.1 59%

Endgame

56.5 27%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 9729, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 9729, 10063

Auto

7.3 26%

Teleop

18.7 67%

Endgame

2.1 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.5pts

Blue projected score35.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.2
Score range: 12–235
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.8Season APEX218

30.8Auto7.3

123.1Teleop18.7

56.5Endgame2.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	9
teleop	58	13
endgame	30	4
foul	0	0
total	119	26

Result

Final score

119 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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