Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.48 – 128.36

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 160.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.5 ±10

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 30.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -6.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 73.42Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.2 ±10

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 38.37Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 22.2Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 67.79Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2064, 3182, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 3182, 1768

Auto

5.5 6%

Teleop

47.3 53%

Endgame

36.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 6620, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1119, 6620, 3467

Auto

10.7 9%

Teleop

72.0 58%

Endgame

42.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.5pts

Blue projected score128.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.9
Score range: 77–148
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.5Season APEX522.2

5.5Auto10.7

47.3Teleop72

36.6Endgame42.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	37
teleop	84	244
endgame	40	106
foul	0	5
total	154	392

Result

Final score

154 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 160.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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