Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.8 – 110.63

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±11

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 43.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 33.74Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 26.58Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.7 ±11.2

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 70.65Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 23.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 16.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 175, 1071, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 175, 1071, 5347

Auto

17.1 18%

Teleop

51.1 53%

Endgame

28.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 3464, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1119, 3464, 9644

Auto

15.6 15%

Teleop

57.2 54%

Endgame

34.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.8pts

Blue projected score110.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.8
Score range: 76–139
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 153.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.6Season APEX358.7

17.1Auto15.6

51.1Teleop57.2

28.8Endgame34.1

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	0
teleop	56	20
endgame	15	13
foul	0	5
total	91	38

Result

Final score

91 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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