Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.4 – 217.76

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.3 ±11

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 56.6Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 125.4Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 118.4Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.1 ±12.2

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 116.72Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 72.65Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 28.39Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3824, 16, 3478

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 16, 3478

Auto

46.4 16%

Teleop

153.7 53%

Endgame

88.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 10217, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 10217, 10101

Auto

32.6 15%

Teleop

133.7 62%

Endgame

48.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.4pts

Blue projected score217.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.6
Score range: 186–332
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 179.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.3Season APEX492.1

46.4Auto32.6

153.7Teleop133.7

88.8Endgame48

9Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	33
teleop	194	71
endgame	96	63
foul	20	5
total	352	172

Result

Final score

352 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Match videos

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