Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
512.54 – 285.83
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
594 – 349
Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±13.1
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 264.3Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 19.57Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 262Event APEX 228.67Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.3 ±11
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 50.63Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 121.69Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 113.51Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8044, 9787, 4635
83
/ 100 compatProjected
512.5 pts
~2.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 8044, 9787, 4635
Auto
109.0 21%
Teleop
276.3 54%
Endgame
123.4 24%
Strengths
- · 8044 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3824, 16, 3478
80
/ 100 compatProjected
285.8 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3824, 16, 3478
Auto
39.0 14%
Teleop
153.8 56%
Endgame
82.2 30%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score512.5pts
Blue projected score285.8pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample172alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 226.7
- Score range
- 255–544
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
693.7Season APEX538.3
109Auto39
276.3Teleop153.8
123.4Endgame82.2
0Consistency9
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 131 | 73 |
| teleop | 295 | 150 |
| endgame | 128 | 111 |
| foul | 40 | 15 |
| total | 594 | 349 |
Result
Final score
594 – 349
Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts
Match videos
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