Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.61 – 223.5

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±12.9

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 57.05Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 91.31Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 57.25Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.1 ±12.2

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 117.83Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 74.47Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 31.2Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 2183, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 2183, 4336

Auto

45.1 23%

Teleop

107.4 54%

Endgame

46.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 10217, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 10217, 10101

Auto

32.1 15%

Teleop

140.9 65%

Endgame

45.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.6pts

Blue projected score223.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.9
Score range: 175–255
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX492.1

45.1Auto32.1

107.4Teleop140.9

46.6Endgame45

3Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	37
teleop	61	100
endgame	54	56
foul	15	0
total	157	193

Result

Final score

157 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Match videos

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