Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.39 – 258.85

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.7 ±14.5

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 96Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 66.29Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 80.1Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.9 ±12.4

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 54.32Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 133.81Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 70.72Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3616, 456, 7072

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3616, 456, 7072

Auto

51.1 22%

Teleop

123.0 52%

Endgame

61.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9717, 2992, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9717, 2992, 364

Auto

38.6 15%

Teleop

143.6 56%

Endgame

73.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.4pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 211–290
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.7Season APEX569.9

51.1Auto38.6

123Teleop143.6

61.8Endgame73.9

60Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	20
teleop	152	192
endgame	86	76
foul	15	0
total	307	288

Result

Final score

307 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Match videos

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