Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.77 – 259.3

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 135 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.3 ±11.7

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 152.93Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 57.07Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 127.77Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±12.9

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 76.22Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 110.08Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 73Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 1421, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 1421, 8808

Auto

40.7 12%

Teleop

193.3 59%

Endgame

92.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 2183, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 2183, 4336

Auto

50.3 20%

Teleop

139.5 55%

Endgame

62.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score337.8pts

Blue projected score259.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.5
Score range: 228–369
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 172.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.3Season APEX427.8

40.7Auto50.3

193.3Teleop139.5

92.9Endgame62.7

38Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	29
teleop	164	13
endgame	64	0
foul	15	5
total	280	47

Result

Final score

280 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 135 pts

Match videos

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