Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
259.99 – 257.09
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
228 – 366
Prediction missed · off by 70.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.9 ±12.4
Season APEX 105Event APEX 52.56Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 136.06Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 71.37Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.3 ±11
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 40.23Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 113.14Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 103.72Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9717, 2992, 364
82
/ 100 compatProjected
260 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 9717, 2992, 364
Auto
46.1 18%
Teleop
145.3 57%
Endgame
64.7 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3824, 16, 3478
79
/ 100 compatProjected
257.1 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 3824, 16, 3478
Auto
29.9 12%
Teleop
126.9 52%
Endgame
85.0 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.55
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score260pts
Blue projected score257.1pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample172alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 2.9
- Score range
- 226–291
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
569.9Season APEX538.3
46.1Auto29.9
145.3Teleop126.9
64.7Endgame85
0Consistency49
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 62 |
| teleop | 122 | 225 |
| endgame | 85 | 79 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 228 | 366 |
Result
Final score
228 – 366
Prediction missed · off by 70.5 pts
Match videos
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