Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

468.15 – 274.88

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

625 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 132.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±13.1

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 248.64Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 4.92Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 214.59Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.7 ±14.5

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 93.19Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 73.7Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 107.99Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 9787, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

468.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 9787, 4635

Auto

100.2 22%

Teleop

252.8 55%

Endgame

110.7 24%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7072, 456, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7072, 456, 3616

Auto

58.6 22%

Teleop

142.9 54%

Endgame

64.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score468.2pts

Blue projected score274.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.3
Score range: 245–498
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 791 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.7Season APEX339.7

100.2Auto58.6

252.8Teleop142.9

110.7Endgame64.3

12Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	35
teleop	332	77
endgame	161	54
foul	0	0
total	625	166

Result

Final score

625 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 132.9 pts

Match videos

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