Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

528.61 – 307.19

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

519 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±13.1

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 269.16Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 26.02Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 233.43Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.3 ±11.7

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 117.29Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 142.74Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 47.16Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 9787, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

528.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 9787, 4635

Auto

113.2 22%

Teleop

280.9 54%

Endgame

123.3 24%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 3937, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 3937, 1421

Auto

41.3 14%

Teleop

171.8 58%

Endgame

81.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score528.6pts

Blue projected score307.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.4
Score range: 274–562
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 890 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.7Season APEX585.3

113.2Auto41.3

280.9Teleop171.8

123.3Endgame81.2

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	29
teleop	302	203
endgame	89	134
foul	5	5
total	519	371

Result

Final score

519 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Match videos

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