Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.32 – 164.28

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.3 ±13.5

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 93.4Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 73.38Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 75.54Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.1 ±16.9

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 108.49Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11260Ursuline Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 37.15Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 18.64Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7072, 456, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7072, 456, 10217

Auto

60.1 26%

Teleop

120.4 53%

Endgame

47.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3478, 11260, 5863

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3478, 11260, 5863

Auto

34.4 21%

Teleop

92.7 58%

Endgame

33.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.3pts

Blue projected score164.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78
Score range: 134–272
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.3Season APEX412.1

60.1Auto34.4

120.4Teleop92.7

47.5Endgame33.5

55Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	153	78
endgame	51	29
foul	0	5
total	240	127

Result

Final score

240 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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