Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.79 – 51.8

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.1 ±17.7

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 53.63Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1818Team Talos

Provisional

Season APEX 114.9Event APEX 28.06Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 18.1Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.5 ±13.4

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -2.71Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 25.15Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 29.36Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1421, 1818, 2080

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1421, 1818, 2080

Auto

30.9 32%

Teleop

46.8 48%

Endgame

20.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10929, 1902, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10929, 1902, 10101

Auto

-6.9 0%

Teleop

38.7 100%

Endgame

3.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.8pts

Blue projected score51.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48
Score range: 22–130
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.1Season APEX415.5

30.9Auto-6.9

46.8Teleop38.7

20.2Endgame3.2

15Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	39	68
endgame	43	20
foul	0	0
total	99	111

Result

Final score

99 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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