Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.28 – 109.45

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±16.4

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 70.1Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 23.94Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 36.24Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±17.3

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 8.99Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 111.28Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -10.82Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 3468, 9699

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 3468, 9699

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

76.6 59%

Endgame

31.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6489, 3753, 9309

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6489, 3753, 9309

Auto

14.5 15%

Teleop

53.3 54%

Endgame

31.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 79–160
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.1Season APEX345.3

20.6Auto14.5

76.6Teleop53.3

31.7Endgame31

52Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	35
teleop	78	94
endgame	49	7
foul	0	0
total	147	136

Result

Final score

147 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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