Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.84 – 105.17

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.2 ±16.4

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 147.35Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 102Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10446Circuitron

Provisional

Season APEX 80Event APEX 16.49Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±18.2

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 72.26Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 35.85Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -2.94Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 3616, 10446

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 3616, 10446

Auto

40.2 15%

Teleop

154.6 59%

Endgame

67.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4336, 5887, 10550

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4336, 5887, 10550

Auto

33.1 30%

Teleop

42.8 39%

Endgame

33.6 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score265.8pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.7
Score range: 75–296
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.2Season APEX190.6

40.2Auto33.1

154.6Teleop42.8

67.9Endgame33.6

29Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	36
teleop	193	72
endgame	72	22
foul	5	0
total	319	130

Result

Final score

319 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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