Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.82 – 393.9

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.2 ±20

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 14.83Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 123.09Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 54.9Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 682.4 ±15.2

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 250.99Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 124.9Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9708Supersonic Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 18.01Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5965, 3039, 11276

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5965, 3039, 11276

Auto

39.5 21%

Teleop

110.4 58%

Endgame

41.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 8808, 9708

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 8808, 9708

Auto

77.6 20%

Teleop

196.7 52%

Endgame

107.0 28%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.8pts

Blue projected score393.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -201.1
Score range: 163–424
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.2Season APEX682.4

39.5Auto77.6

110.4Teleop196.7

41.5Endgame107

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	123
teleop	79	201
endgame	63	70
foul	5	5
total	169	399

Result

Final score

169 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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