Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.31 – 268.94

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±16.8

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 11.11Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 9.28Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 1.92Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.3 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 121.71Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 57.43Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 89.8Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9405, 5705, 9456

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9405, 5705, 9456

Auto

20.2 100%

Teleop

1.3 9%

Endgame

-6.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 7094, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 7094, 10217

Auto

57.7 22%

Teleop

143.5 54%

Endgame

63.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score268.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -246.6
Score range: -8–299
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.9Season APEX396.3

20.2Auto57.7

1.3Teleop143.5

-6.9Endgame63.5

78Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	6	84
endgame	5	26
foul	0	30
total	24	158

Result

Final score

24 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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