Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.53 – 183.98

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±14.5

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 0.72Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 23.64Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 34.17Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293 ±16.9

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 50.11Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 130.75Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9768ROBOKNIGHTS

Provisional

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 3.12Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9313, 3824, 9717

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9313, 3824, 9717

Auto

-3.1 0%

Teleop

16.9 38%

Endgame

30.3 69%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10943, 16, 9768

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10943, 16, 9768

Auto

33.5 18%

Teleop

93.4 51%

Endgame

56.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.5pts

Blue projected score184pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.4
Score range: 29–214
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.7Season APEX293

-3.1Auto33.5

16.9Teleop93.4

30.3Endgame56.1

35Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	107	46
endgame	68	17
foul	5	0
total	193	82

Result

Final score

193 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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