Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.26 – 102.68

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.6 ±16.8

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 54.58Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 23.32Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 4.36Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±20

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 55.55Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 34.8Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 12.33Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1421, 1902, 9456

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1421, 1902, 9456

Auto

3.7 6%

Teleop

33.0 54%

Endgame

23.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11276, 9699, 9405

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11276, 9699, 9405

Auto

19.7 20%

Teleop

47.0 47%

Endgame

32.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score102.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 52–133
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.6Season APEX249.9

3.7Auto19.7

33Teleop47

23.9Endgame32.7

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	41	50
endgame	30	21
foul	5	0
total	94	97

Result

Final score

94 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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