Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.49 – 67.4

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

455 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.3 ±15.2

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 259.05Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 51.72Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 145.72Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.7 ±19.7

9660Delgado Community College Dolphinbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 26.6Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 7.32Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1818Team Talos

Provisional

Season APEX 114.9Event APEX 33.48Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 11276, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.5 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 11276, 3937

Auto

92.1 21%

Teleop

242.4 54%

Endgame

111.8 25%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9660, 5705, 1818

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9660, 5705, 1818

Auto

21.7 32%

Teleop

36.7 54%

Endgame

9.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score456.5pts

Blue projected score67.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 389.1
Score range: 33–490
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.3Season APEX308.7

92.1Auto21.7

242.4Teleop36.7

111.8Endgame9.3

12Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	11
teleop	253	16
endgame	120	4
foul	0	10
total	455	41

Result

Final score

455 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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