Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.26 – 130.22

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 3.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±15

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -10.41Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 102.29Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 35.38Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.3 ±15.9

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 95.74Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 13.39Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 21.09Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9309, 3616, 5887

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 3616, 5887

Auto

17.9 14%

Teleop

62.4 51%

Endgame

43.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10217, 5965, 3824

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10217, 5965, 3824

Auto

31.0 26%

Teleop

65.4 54%

Endgame

24.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.3pts

Blue projected score130.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 97–160
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX355.3

17.9Auto31

62.4Teleop65.4

43.2Endgame24.7

80Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	15
teleop	60	65
endgame	27	48
foul	5	0
total	132	128

Result

Final score

132 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 3.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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