Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.28 – 140.72

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±19.3

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 86.38Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 3.8Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -16.9Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.7 ±17.3

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 120.48Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -4.45Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9660Delgado Community College Dolphinbots

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 24.69Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7072, 9761, 9787

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7072, 9761, 9787

Auto

23.7 29%

Teleop

27.6 34%

Endgame

29.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 10929, 9660

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 10929, 9660

Auto

37.8 30%

Teleop

68.3 54%

Endgame

20.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.3pts

Blue projected score140.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 43–171
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX262.7

23.7Auto37.8

27.6Teleop68.3

29.2Endgame20.9

97Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	32
teleop	101	89
endgame	61	44
foul	0	0
total	189	165

Result

Final score

189 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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