Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.96 – 68.95

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.3 ±16.6

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 36.23Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6068Delta Overload

Provisional

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 42.78Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 221.95Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.9 ±16.3

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 25.19Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 10.37Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 33.39Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5863, 6068, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

301 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5863, 6068, 4635

Auto

61.7 20%

Teleop

166.5 55%

Endgame

76.1 25%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5705, 6489, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 6489, 10101

Auto

7.5 13%

Teleop

44.9 78%

Endgame

5.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score301pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232
Score range: 38–332
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.3Season APEX346.9

61.7Auto7.5

166.5Teleop44.9

76.1Endgame5.5

24Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	1
teleop	98	20
endgame	2	5
foul	20	5
total	174	31

Result

Final score

174 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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