Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.29 – 39.08

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625.2 ±15.2

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 243.65Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7288NOMMA D3V1LB0TS

Provisional

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 7.09Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 72.55Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.8 ±18.2

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 1.47Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -10.49Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 48.1Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 7288, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 7288, 3284

Auto

82.5 25%

Teleop

155.5 48%

Endgame

86.5 27%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9313, 10550, 10943

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9313, 10550, 10943

Auto

13.4 31%

Teleop

6.8 16%

Endgame

22.7 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score323.3pts

Blue projected score39.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 284.2
Score range: 9–353
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625.2Season APEX191.8

82.5Auto13.4

155.5Teleop6.8

86.5Endgame22.7

79Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	22
teleop	189	24
endgame	79	22
foul	10	0
total	359	68

Result

Final score

359 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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