Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.33 – 205.14

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.5 ±16.8

10497Bayou Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 14.17Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 132.17Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 22.99Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.3 ±15.9

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 29.84Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 13.85Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 161.45Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10497, 2183, 3468

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10497, 2183, 3468

Auto

29.5 18%

Teleop

105.3 65%

Endgame

26.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1902, 5965, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 5965, 3937

Auto

6.5 3%

Teleop

125.5 67%

Endgame

56.2 30%

Strengths

· 3937 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.3pts

Blue projected score205.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.8
Score range: 139–235
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.5Season APEX548.3

29.5Auto6.5

105.3Teleop125.5

26.5Endgame56.2

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	25
teleop	39	113
endgame	29	36
foul	15	5
total	106	179

Result

Final score

106 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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