Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.8 – 104.2

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 74.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±19.7

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 27.95Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 6.12Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10446Circuitron

Provisional

Season APEX 80Event APEX 2.73Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±15.3

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 92.7Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 25.55Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -14.05Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9699, 3824, 10446

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9699, 3824, 10446

Auto

2.2 6%

Teleop

7.2 21%

Endgame

25.1 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 456, 5705, 9787

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 456, 5705, 9787

Auto

32.2 36%

Teleop

26.8 30%

Endgame

31.2 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.8pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 7–134
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 169.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.5Season APEX318.1

2.2Auto32.2

7.2Teleop26.8

25.1Endgame31.2

48Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	26
teleop	53	17
endgame	47	0
foul	20	5
total	129	48

Result

Final score

129 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 74.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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