Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.22 – 274.95

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±17.7

9708Supersonic Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 10.31Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -1.48Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 48.39Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±11

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 109.14Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 82.09Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 83.72Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9708, 10929, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9708, 10929, 1421

Auto

11.8 26%

Teleop

24.9 55%

Endgame

8.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3753, 3478, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

275 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3753, 3478, 10217

Auto

46.6 17%

Teleop

160.8 60%

Endgame

60.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.2pts

Blue projected score275pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -217.7
Score range: 27–305
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.3Season APEX615.3

11.8Auto46.6

24.9Teleop160.8

8.2Endgame60.5

45Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	68
teleop	39	185
endgame	12	81
foul	5	0
total	76	334

Result

Final score

76 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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