Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.5 – 25.31

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±16.9

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 56.72Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 50.6Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 44.18Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182 ±22.5

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 10.54Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -20.49Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11260Ursuline Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 35.26Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 11276, 10943

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 11276, 10943

Auto

29.6 19%

Teleop

81.9 52%

Endgame

44.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6489, 10550, 11260

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6489, 10550, 11260

Auto

8.7 44%

Teleop

10.9 55%

Endgame

0.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score25.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.2
Score range: -6–183
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.7Season APEX182

29.6Auto8.7

81.9Teleop10.9

44.7Endgame0.2

0Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	25
teleop	84	12
endgame	44	12
foul	0	0
total	173	49

Result

Final score

173 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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