Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.54 – 210.28

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.9 ±13.9

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 40.84Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 44.7Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 31Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±13.5

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 118.55Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX 16.38Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 75.35Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7094, 1421, 3468

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7094, 1421, 3468

Auto

21.4 19%

Teleop

56.7 50%

Endgame

36.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 16, 9313, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 16, 9313, 456

Auto

34.7 16%

Teleop

113.6 54%

Endgame

63.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score210.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 83–244
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.9Season APEX392.6

21.4Auto34.7

56.7Teleop113.6

36.4Endgame63

68Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	40
teleop	57	70
endgame	21	26
foul	0	0
total	101	136

Result

Final score

101 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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