Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.02 – 294.04

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.8 ±17.7

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -7.47Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 19.98Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6068Delta Overload

Provisional

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 53.51Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.2 ±14.1

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 95.31Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 55.04Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 143.69Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9309, 9405, 6068

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 9405, 6068

Auto

18.4 34%

Teleop

13.6 25%

Endgame

21.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7072, 9717, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

294 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7072, 9717, 8808

Auto

55.5 21%

Teleop

154.2 57%

Endgame

59.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66pts

Blue projected score294pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -228
Score range: 36–324
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.8Season APEX429.2

18.4Auto55.5

13.6Teleop154.2

21.6Endgame59.9

23Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	4	97
endgame	9	93
foul	0	0
total	28	218

Result

Final score

28 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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