Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.98 – 17.58

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±15.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 55.27Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11342StingVille Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 65Event APEX 29.37Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 143.34Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.3 ±18.2

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX -10.43Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 15.33Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 12.68Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10101, 11342, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 11342, 2992

Auto

52.8 25%

Teleop

119.1 55%

Endgame

43.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9313, 5887, 9456

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9313, 5887, 9456

Auto

-0.5 0%

Teleop

13.9 89%

Endgame

2.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228pts

Blue projected score17.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.4
Score range: -13–259
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.8Season APEX186.3

52.8Auto-0.5

119.1Teleop13.9

43.3Endgame2.3

43Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	74	22
endgame	15	20
foul	0	5
total	116	62

Result

Final score

116 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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