Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.02 – 95.67

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 113.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±19.1

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX -14.59Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 215.75Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX -6.14Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±17.2

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 80.42Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 35.66Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10446Circuitron

Provisional

Season APEX 80Event APEX -20.41Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5965, 4635, 6489

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5965, 4635, 6489

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

105.0 57%

Endgame

44.7 24%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 456, 1421, 10446

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 456, 1421, 10446

Auto

36.0 45%

Teleop

39.7 49%

Endgame

4.9 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 66–225
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.8Season APEX288.6

36Auto36

105Teleop39.7

44.7Endgame4.9

60Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	47
teleop	217	75
endgame	59	49
foul	5	15
total	332	186

Result

Final score

332 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 113.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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