Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.5 – 83.9

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±15

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 9.34Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -11.35Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 46.51Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243 ±20

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 24.92Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7288NOMMA D3V1LB0TS

Provisional

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 29.21Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11276Kenner BruhBots

Provisional

Season APEX 90.6Event APEX 29.77Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9405, 10929, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9405, 10929, 4336

Auto

14.8 57%

Teleop

7.2 28%

Endgame

4.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3468, 7288, 11276

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3468, 7288, 11276

Auto

36.9 41%

Teleop

45.3 50%

Endgame

8.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 15–114
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.2Season APEX243

14.8Auto36.9

7.2Teleop45.3

4.1Endgame8.7

22Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	69	36
endgame	11	29
foul	0	5
total	107	90

Result

Final score

107 – 90

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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