Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.57 – 63.75

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.6 ±11

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 118.4Rank 3Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 95.37Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 42.8Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±19.7

9768ROBOKNIGHTS

Provisional

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX -9.08Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11260Ursuline Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 52.54Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 20.29Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8808, 16, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 16, 10101

Auto

58.8 24%

Teleop

152.7 61%

Endgame

37.3 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9768, 11260, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9768, 11260, 5705

Auto

7.8 14%

Teleop

34.2 60%

Endgame

15.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score256.6pts

Blue projected score63.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.8
Score range: 34–287
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.6Season APEX209.7

58.8Auto7.8

152.7Teleop34.2

37.3Endgame15.2

44Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	209	21
endgame	113	14
foul	20	0
total	360	47

Result

Final score

360 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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