Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.27 – 467.1

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.9 ±12.9

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 58.43Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 70.49Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 31.35Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.3 ±10.5

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 221.43Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 135.96Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 109.71Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9717, 10217, 1902

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9717, 10217, 1902

Auto

16.4 11%

Teleop

84.1 58%

Endgame

44.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4635, 2992, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.1 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4635, 2992, 3753

Auto

76.7 17%

Teleop

267.2 59%

Endgame

111.0 24%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.3pts

Blue projected score467.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -306.8
Score range: 126–501
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.9Season APEX725.3

16.4Auto76.7

84.1Teleop267.2

44.5Endgame111

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	76
teleop	47	296
endgame	26	124
foul	30	5
total	119	501

Result

Final score

119 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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