Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.25 – 233.18

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.3 ±18.1

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 11.54Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -17.91Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 109.62Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.9 ±16.4

9708Supersonic Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 40.78Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 68.45Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 123.95Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9456, 9787, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9456, 9787, 4087

Auto

38.3 36%

Teleop

71.1 66%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9708, 3284, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9708, 3284, 3616

Auto

54.7 23%

Teleop

127.4 53%

Endgame

59.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score233.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.9
Score range: 73–263
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.3Season APEX460.9

38.3Auto54.7

71.1Teleop127.4

-1.9Endgame59.8

37Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	45
teleop	84	103
endgame	30	37
foul	5	0
total	155	185

Result

Final score

155 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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