Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.23 – 132.29

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 79 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.9 ±16.4

1818Team Talos

Provisional

Season APEX 114.9Event APEX 41.84Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 74.91Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 163.48Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±16.3

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -4.28Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 86.89Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6068Delta Overload

Provisional

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 49.68Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1818, 7094, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1818, 7094, 2992

Auto

57.8 21%

Teleop

160.5 58%

Endgame

57.6 21%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3824, 3753, 6068

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 3753, 6068

Auto

23.7 20%

Teleop

70.0 60%

Endgame

22.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.2pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.9
Score range: 102–310
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.9Season APEX334.1

57.8Auto23.7

160.5Teleop70

57.6Endgame22.4

0Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	30
teleop	113	101
endgame	52	90
foul	0	0
total	211	221

Result

Final score

211 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 79 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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