Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.35 – 82.5

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.8 ±12.4

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 12.51Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 245.15Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9313ROBOhana

Season APEX 83Event APEX -0.31Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264 ±17.7

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 1.5Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 64.58Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.42Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1902, 8044, 9313

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1902, 8044, 9313

Auto

54.7 22%

Teleop

129.6 53%

Endgame

62.0 25%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5863, 456, 9761

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5863, 456, 9761

Auto

43.0 64%

Teleop

35.2 52%

Endgame

-10.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score257.4pts

Blue projected score82.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.9
Score range: 54–286
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.8Season APEX264

54.7Auto43

129.6Teleop35.2

62Endgame-10.7

128Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	41
teleop	161	68
endgame	105	36
foul	20	15
total	298	160

Result

Final score

298 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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