Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.82 – 60.33

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±13.9

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 8.07Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 51.11Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 73.64Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±13.9

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -11.69Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7072O.G.R.E. (Opelika's Greatest Robotics Engineers)

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 64.69Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 7.33Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2221, 10101, 3039

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2221, 10101, 3039

Auto

30.6 23%

Teleop

82.9 63%

Endgame

18.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5705, 7072, 3468

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 7072, 3468

Auto

14.4 23%

Teleop

32.0 52%

Endgame

15.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.8pts

Blue projected score60.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.5
Score range: 31–162
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.6Season APEX299.9

30.6Auto14.4

82.9Teleop32

18.2Endgame15.2

60Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	41
teleop	108	103
endgame	13	43
foul	15	5
total	147	192

Result

Final score

147 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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