Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.13 – 48.3

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±15.9

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 59.98Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9708Supersonic Circuit Breakers

Provisional

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX -20.14Rank 15Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 29.29Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.4 ±20.5

9768ROBOKNIGHTS

Provisional

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 1.05Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 34.2Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7288NOMMA D3V1LB0TS

Provisional

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 13.05Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2183, 9708, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 9708, 364

Auto

25.3 37%

Teleop

8.5 12%

Endgame

34.3 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9768, 5887, 7288

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9768, 5887, 7288

Auto

13.3 23%

Teleop

23.2 40%

Endgame

21.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score48.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 18–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.1Season APEX148.4

25.3Auto13.3

8.5Teleop23.2

34.3Endgame21.9

110Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	19
teleop	177	25
endgame	71	0
foul	5	0
total	303	44

Result

Final score

303 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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