Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
322.83 – 273.04
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
253 – 335
Prediction missed · off by 65.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.2 ±11.9
Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 10.21Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 80.85Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 231.77Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543 ±14.5
Season APEX 90.8Event APEX -17.45Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 226.78Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 63.71Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9309, 3478, 4635
86
/ 100 compatProjected
322.8 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9309, 3478, 4635
Auto
45.6 15%
Teleop
194.6 62%
Endgame
73.0 23%
Strengths
- · 4635 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9787, 8044, 7094
92
/ 100 compatProjected
273 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 9787, 8044, 7094
Auto
67.0 25%
Teleop
141.0 52%
Endgame
62.5 23%
Strengths
- · 8044 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score322.8pts
Blue projected score273pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample172alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 49.8
- Score range
- 244–352
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
582.2Season APEX543
45.6Auto67
194.6Teleop141
73Endgame62.5
144Consistency165
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 75 |
| teleop | 127 | 166 |
| endgame | 83 | 94 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 253 | 335 |
Result
Final score
253 – 335
Prediction missed · off by 65.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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