Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.27 – 134.84

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±20.5

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 39.11Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6068Delta Overload

Provisional

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 17.19Rank 43Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 11.97Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±16.3

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 113.76Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9787Fathom Robotics

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 11.01Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 10.07Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5887, 6068, 6489

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5887, 6068, 6489

Auto

19.7 31%

Teleop

33.1 52%

Endgame

11.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 9787, 10929

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 9787, 10929

Auto

25.7 20%

Teleop

75.6 59%

Endgame

26.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.6
Score range: 34–169
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 86 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.5Season APEX327.3

19.7Auto25.7

33.1Teleop75.6

11.4Endgame26.8

98Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	11
teleop	23	16
endgame	6	10
foul	0	0
total	49	37

Result

Final score

49 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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