Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.24 – 33.05

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.3 ±19.7

10497Bayou Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 64.11Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -5.92Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 90.05Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±16.8

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -5.7Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 21.9Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 16.85Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10497, 10550, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10497, 10550, 3753

Auto

29.7 21%

Teleop

79.7 57%

Endgame

30.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9761, 9405, 3824

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9761, 9405, 3824

Auto

11.5 53%

Teleop

5.4 25%

Endgame

4.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score33.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.2
Score range: 4–177
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.3Season APEX223

29.7Auto11.5

79.7Teleop5.4

30.9Endgame4.6

74Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	36	10
endgame	15	3
foul	0	20
total	66	58

Result

Final score

66 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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