Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153 – 291.19

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±14.5

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -11.11Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 46.24Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 117.87Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±12.4

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 73.5Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 80.31Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 137.38Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5863, 1421, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5863, 1421, 3616

Auto

31.0 20%

Teleop

90.0 59%

Endgame

31.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3284, 9717, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 9717, 3937

Auto

33.9 13%

Teleop

163.7 61%

Endgame

69.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153pts

Blue projected score291.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.2
Score range: 124–320
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX583.4

31Auto33.9

90Teleop163.7

31.7Endgame69.3

9Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	47
teleop	71	194
endgame	52	88
foul	0	0
total	155	329

Result

Final score

155 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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