Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 117.53

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±19.7

10446Circuitron

Provisional

Season APEX 80Event APEX -7.37Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7288NOMMA D3V1LB0TS

Provisional

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 5.81Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1902Exploding Bacon

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 0.24Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±17.2

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 55.8Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 20.45Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11260Ursuline Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 41.28Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10446, 7288, 1902

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10446, 7288, 1902

Auto

2.5 83%

Teleop

-17.2 0%

Endgame

17.7 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 7094, 11260

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 7094, 11260

Auto

26.7 19%

Teleop

90.4 66%

Endgame

20.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-1.3pts

Blue projected score117.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: -29–147
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.6Season APEX346.2

2.5Auto26.7

-17.2Teleop90.4

17.7Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	36
teleop	18	148
endgame	15	55
foul	5	15
total	55	254

Result

Final score

55 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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