Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.03 – 106.93

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 60 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.7 ±15

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -1.79Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -15.65Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 31.47Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±15.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 77.52Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 24.31Rank 11Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1055035 Soaring Roneagles

Provisional

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 5.1Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10929, 9309, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10929, 9309, 456

Auto

10.3 61%

Teleop

22.3 100%

Endgame

-15.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 364, 10550

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 364, 10550

Auto

28.8 26%

Teleop

43.9 39%

Endgame

39.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score14pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.9
Score range: -15–136
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.7Season APEX396.2

10.3Auto28.8

22.3Teleop43.9

-15.8Endgame39.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	24
teleop	7	40
endgame	3	17
foul	60	0
total	108	81

Result

Final score

108 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 60 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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