Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 108.09

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 126 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±17.3

5887PrepaTec IMPERATOR

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 2.29Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -13.36Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -10.85Rank 53Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.6 ±13.5

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 29.47Rank 41Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 42.53Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 36.09Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5887, 9761, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

-21.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5887, 9761, 5705

Auto

-2.1 11%

Teleop

-7.5 39%

Endgame

-9.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1421, 4087, 9717

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1421, 4087, 9717

Auto

42.0 42%

Teleop

65.4 66%

Endgame

-8.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-21.9pts

Blue projected score108.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.1
Score range: -29–137
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.9Season APEX420.6

-2.1Auto42

-7.5Teleop65.4

-9.6Endgame-8.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	24	183
endgame	24	44
foul	0	25
total	64	296

Result

Final score

64 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 126 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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