Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.01 – 259.01

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 94.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±19.3

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 5.14Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9768ROBOKNIGHTS

Provisional

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 2.7Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 168.17Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.8 ±12.4

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 70.12Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -4.03Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 192.92Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9699, 9768, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9699, 9768, 2992

Auto

23.7 13%

Teleop

117.3 65%

Endgame

39.5 22%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3616, 9405, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

259 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3616, 9405, 8044

Auto

61.0 23%

Teleop

155.1 59%

Endgame

48.3 18%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score259pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83
Score range: 148–287
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.7Season APEX543.8

23.7Auto61

117.3Teleop155.1

39.5Endgame48.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	92
teleop	96	224
endgame	62	108
foul	0	20
total	180	444

Result

Final score

180 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 94.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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