Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.66 – 123.39

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±15.9

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 153.49Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6489Bronco Bolts

Provisional

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 2.57Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 33.6Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.5 ±19.3

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 81.01Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9456Nunez Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 14.29Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11342StingVille Robotics Team

Provisional

Season APEX 65Event APEX 28.09Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 6489, 3824

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 6489, 3824

Auto

29.6 15%

Teleop

121.5 62%

Endgame

44.6 23%

Strengths

· 3937 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3478, 9456, 11342

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3478, 9456, 11342

Auto

19.1 15%

Teleop

76.8 62%

Endgame

28.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.7pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.3
Score range: 95–218
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.7Season APEX362.5

29.6Auto19.1

121.5Teleop76.8

44.6Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	49
teleop	62	73
endgame	47	10
foul	35	25
total	151	157

Result

Final score

151 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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