Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.06 – 69.85

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 4

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±17.3

7288NOMMA D3V1LB0TS

Provisional

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 14.12Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 26.28Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 38.66Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±22.5

9761LSMSA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.41Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9699Bayou Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 39.4Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5965Power Struck Girls

Provisional

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 14.04Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7288, 10101, 10943

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7288, 10101, 10943

Auto

18.5 24%

Teleop

40.0 51%

Endgame

19.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9761, 9699, 5965

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9761, 9699, 5965

Auto

7.8 13%

Teleop

29.2 47%

Endgame

25.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score69.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample172alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 36–113
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX236.2

18.5Auto7.8

40Teleop29.2

19.3Endgame25.1

9Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	0
teleop	62	4
endgame	38	0
foul	0	0
total	129	4

Result

Final score

129 – 4

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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